Cielo
Key Takeaways
- Climatic concerns and rising electricity demand are driving the shift toward energy-efficient HVAC technology.
- Harmful refrigerants such as R-410A and R-22 are being phased out due to their high Global Warming Potentials (GWPs).
- A growing number of Americans are prioritizing smart HVAC technology and are willing to invest more in it.
The HVAC market will rise from $174.58 billion in 2025 to $256.95 billion by 2032. That’s a massive shift fueled by new technologies and a stronger focus on energy efficiency.
From advancements in energy efficiency to smart automation, these changes present new opportunities to drive growth. This article is a round-up of the top HVAC industry trends and statistics to understand in 2026.
HVAC & Environment: The Push for Sustainability
As global warming disrupts the climate, more and more homeowners are concerned about their energy use and carbon footprint. This increased sense of social responsibility is at the forefront of a shift towards efficient HVAC technology to reduce electricity consumption.
- The energy-efficient HVAC systems market is forecast to grow to $25.40 billion at a CAGR of 10.7% by 2029.
- Investing in more efficient HVAC systems could cut future cooling demand by 45%.
- Modern heat pumps are designed to reduce heating electricity use by up to 75% compared to furnaces and baseboard heaters.
- Heat pumps accounted for over 69% of the market share in 2024, driven by growing demand for energy-efficient HVAC systems.
- The U.S. Department of Energy requires residential HVAC systems to meet minimum SEER2 (Seasonal Energy Efficiency Ratio) efficiency standards. In the Southeast and Southwest, central ACs under 45,000 Btu/hr must meet 14.3 SEER2, while units 45,000 Btu/hr or higher must meet 13.8 SEER2. Heat pumps in any region must meet 14.3 SEER2 and 7.5 HSPF2 requirements.
- An ENERGY STAR-certified room air conditioner uses 20-35% less energy than a standard model.
Sources: Technavio, IEA, Energy.gov, Grand View Research, The SEER2 Guide, ENERGY STAR
Budget-friendly smart thermostat for central HVAC systems. A thermostat that guarantees savings.
Award-winning smart thermostat for mini-splits. Technology that goes above & beyond.
Sleekest smart thermostat for mini-split, window & portable ACs. A design that magically blends.
Smart mini-split thermostat that is engineered for affordable comfort. Small in size, big in benefits.
Government Incentives for Switching to High-Efficiency HVAC Systems
Federal, state, and local programs now offer tax credits and rebates to ease the financial burden and accelerate the adoption of energy-efficient heating and cooling systems.
- The Energy Efficiency Home Improvement Tax Credit allows homeowners to claim a 30% federal income tax credit, up to $2,000, when upgrading to high-efficiency heat pumps. The systems must be purchased and installed between January 1, 2023, and December 31, 2025.
Sources: ENERGY STAR
Eco-Friendly Refrigerants
Traditional HVAC systems have long used HFC refrigerants like R-410A, but these have high Global Warming Potentials (GWPs), making them a major contributor to climate change. In response to environmental concerns, harmful refrigerants are being phased out and replaced with low-GWP alternatives such as R-32 and R-454B.
- The American Innovation and Manufacturing (AIM) Act requires the EPA to reduce the production and use of HFCs by 85% by 2036.
- The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has ruled that starting January 1, 2025, all new residential and light commercial air conditioners and heat pumps must restrict the use of higher-GWP HFCs and switch to environmentally friendly refrigerants.
Solar-Powered HVAC
Fossil fuels are responsible for about 75% of global greenhouse gas emissions and nearly 90% of carbon dioxide emissions. This heavy reliance on fossil fuels is a major driver of climate change, making it essential to integrate renewable energy sources such as solar energy.
- Investing in solar panels could help the average U.S. homeowner save $50,000 on electricity costs over time.
- Over the last decade, the solar market in the United States has grown at an average rate of 25% each year.
- There are now over 4.8 million solar installations in the US. These range from small rooftop systems on homes to large utility-scale projects that contribute hundreds of megawatts of clean energy to the power grid.
Sources: EnergySage, Solar Energy Industries Association, International Energy Agency
Air Conditioning Usage & Electricity Demand
Rising global temperatures are driving an unprecedented surge in air conditioning demand, significantly impacting electricity consumption. Cooling Degree Days (CDD), a metric that measures how much cooling is needed to maintain indoor comfort, has increased across most regions. In 2025, a heat dome settled over much of the eastern U.S., pushing temperatures to record-breaking levels.
- Currently, air conditioning accounts for 12% of all electricity consumption in the U.S, a figure expected to rise as temperatures climb.
- Heating and cooling make up about 40% of a home’s utility bills in the U.S.
- Air conditioning-related energy demand is anticipated to grow almost threefold by 2050, reaching 6,205 TWh.
- Space cooling is projected to drive a 40% increase in electricity demand by 2030.
Sources: Energy.gov 1, Energy.gov 2, STATISTA, IEA
Smart HVAC: The New Industry Standard
As the HVAC industry trend shifts toward smart technology, homeowners are increasingly investing in advanced climate control solutions that enhance sustainability and reduce energy consumption.
Smart Thermostats
The HVAC industry is fully embracing the smart revolution, integrating advanced technologies like smart thermostats to enhance comfort, efficiency, and control. Smart thermostats allow you to manage temperature settings remotely, track energy usage, and automate climate adjustments based on daily routines. This shift not only improves convenience but also promotes energy conservation and cost savings.
Equip your HVAC system with smart features and achieve the perfect balance between comfort & savings.
Learn more
- The US smart thermostat market is projected to grow to $3.86 billion by 2029.
- North America leads the global smart thermostat market, accounting for more than 61% of total revenue in 2024.
- Consumer satisfaction remains high – eight out of ten homeowners who own a smart thermostat say they would buy another in the future.
Fortune Business Insights, Grand View Research, STATISTA
AI-Powered Predictive Maintenance
AI-powered predictive maintenance is transforming HVAC operations. AI algorithms analyze data patterns and predict potential breakdowns before they happen.
- The global predictive maintenance market is projected to grow from $10.6 billion in 2024 to $47.8 billion in 2029 at a CAGR of 35.1%.
Sources: MARKETS AND MARKETS
Indoor Air Quality (IAQ) Is a Top Priority
The shift in indoor air quality (IAQ) technology is moving beyond passive filtration toward active air purification and smart automation.
Modern HVAC systems have evolved into whole-home air quality solutions. Features such as HEPA-grade filtration, UV-C coil treatment, smart humidity control, and fresh-air ventilation are increasingly included in HVAC upgrades.
- The global air quality monitoring market is projected generate a revenue of $7.39 billion by 2031.
Sources: Global Newswire, Science Direct
HVAC Industry Trends in the Workforce
The demand for HVAC mechanics and installers is rising, with job growth expected to continue through 2030.
- HVAC employment is projected to grow by 8% by 2030, with 38500 job openings per year.
- HVAC technicians earn an average of $59,000 per year, with starting wages around $39,000 in the U.S.
- An entry-level HVAC installer can expect to make about $46000 annually,
- Technicians who move up to a supervisor role can earn around $93000 per year.
Sources: Forbes, Jobber, Indeed 1, Indeed 2
Looking Forward: What to Expect From the HVAC Industry
With rising electricity demand, stricter climate policies, and workforce challenges, the HVAC industry is at a turning point. HVAC industry trends are expected to focus on energy efficiency and sustainability in the coming years. HVAC manufacturers are now developing products that use cutting-edge technology to reduce energy consumption. With continued improvements in air conditioning efficiency, they will use less electricity, which can help lower overall demand. Smart HVAC technology is anticipated to become even more popular among homeowners to lower energy usage and reduce carbon footprint.
